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Patronage clears customs at the canon gate
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
Patronage clears customs at the canon gate. Read the sequence of Buddhist catalogues from the Chu sanzang jiji to the Kaiyuan lu as an admissions ledger and entry into the canon behaves bureaucratically rather than doctrinally. A translation executed under imperial commission arrives pre-cleared — the cataloguer works from the throne's own records — while a privately produced translation must wait to be noticed, verified, and vouched for across catalogue generations. Canonization latency, measured in catalogues rather than years, is thus a patronage detector that still works a millennium later.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
For translations produced roughly 500-700 CE, record whether the translator worked under documented imperial sponsorship and count the major catalogues issued between the translation and its first entry into the ruzang (canon-admission) lists. Primary clause (verdict follows it): the median catalogue-lag of unsponsored translations exceeds that of sponsored ones by at least one full catalogue generation. Secondary: unsponsored works are overrepresented at least twofold in the doubtful holding categories before eventual admission.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the catalogue chain itself in CBETA — Chu sanzang jiji (T 2145), Fajing's Zhongjing mulu (T 2146), Yancong's catalogue (T 2147), the Da Tang neidian lu (T 2149), and the Kaiyuan shijiao lu (T 2154) — all digitized and cross-referenced. Resolvable against CBETA without new ingestion.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Catalogue scholarship (Storch; recent Hualin work on Fei Changfang's ruzang lists) documents that imperial commission versus private production shaped canonical admission, anticipating the mechanism; the catalogue-lag latency metric across 500-700 CE translations is un-run.
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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