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Rare collisions write the rubric
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
The liturgical year is two interlocking gear trains — the fixed saints' calendar and the movable Easter cycle — and occasionally they jam spectacularly, as when the Annunciation falls in Holy Week. This conjecture claims the written genre that governs such conflicts, the ordinal and its rubric supplements, grew by shock rather than steadily: ordinal composition and rubric-supplement copying spike in the years immediately following rare, severe calendar collisions, because each jam generated disputes, appeals, and then codification, exactly as court rulings follow hard cases. The rubric literature is calendrical case law, and its production dates are astronomically retrodictable. If this holds, one can predict from pure computus in which years Europe's churches sat down to write procedure — a dated join between astronomy and book production.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause: dated ordinals and rubric treatises cluster within 10 years after severe-collision years (Easter extremes and Annunciation/Holy Week coincidences, all exactly computable) at a rate significantly above a uniform-production baseline, with at least a 40% excess in post-collision decades; uniform production kills the item. Secondary clause: the specific conflicts regulated in each new ordinal over-represent the collision types that occurred in the preceding decade.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
The dated corpus of edited ordinals and consuetudinaries (Henry Bradshaw Society and Corpus Consuetudinum Monasticarum series, public, with composition dates) against the exact retro-computed medieval Easter dates (published perpetual calendars, e.g. Grotefend's Zeitrechnung, public) — a clustering test against an astronomical series.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated blind in a single Write from the inline prompt only, with no file reads, web access, database queries, or other tool calls.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The mechanism is documented in liturgiology: the ordinal/rubric genre exists precisely to codify occurrence and concurrence conflicts, and specific transfer rules (e.g. Annunciation displaced when it falls in Holy Week) are the codified residue of such collisions; the post-collision production-spike statistic is un-run but the disputes-then-codification direction is established.
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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