The lost codex reconstructed from its children

Claim (verbatim)

Cin Dromma Snechtai - the Book of Druimm Snechta - is a manuscript no one has seen for centuries; by the usual reckoning it was written in the first half of the eighth century, which would make it the oldest known collection of Irish saga. It survives only as a name cited in later manuscripts, which now and then mark a tale with the note that it came from the Cin. From those citations Rudolf Thurneysen, in Die irische Helden- und Koenigsage (1921), and scholars after him reconstructed a partial table of contents - early recensions of Compert Con Culainn and Compert Conchobuir, Tochmarc Etaine, Immram Brain, Echtrae Chonlai, and a handful more. The loss mechanism is total at the level of the object and partial at the level of its texts: the codex itself is gone, and its contents reach us only because a few later scribes copied individual items out of it before it vanished, each item now hanging by the thread of a single derivative witness. Restated: the reconstructed contents of Cin Dromma Snechtai number fewer than twenty identified items, and a majority of them survive through a single medieval manuscript line, while the codex itself is preserved in exactly zero witnesses. The oldest saga-book in Ireland is a hypothesis triangulated from the marginal notes of its heirs.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Prediction: assembling the items attributed to Cin Dromma Snechtai in the scholarly reconstruction (Thurneysen 1921 and its revisions), the reconstructed contents will number fewer than twenty distinct identified texts, and at least half of those will survive through only a single independent medieval manuscript witness, while the codex itself survives in none (primary clause: fewer than twenty reconstructed items with a single-witness majority; the verdict follows it). Attribution follows explicit medieval citation of the Cin or the standard scholarly consensus; disputed attributions are counted against the ceiling, not for it. The reconstruction is contested and the item is flagged accordingly; the test voids if no citation-based contents list can be assembled.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the reconstructed contents of Cin Dromma Snechtai in Thurneysen's Die irische Helden- und Koenigsage (1921) and later treatments, cross-checked against the manuscript witness-counts for each attributed tale in CELT (celt.ucc.ie) and the CODECS catalogue (van Hamel Foundation).

Novelty / leakage triage

already answered in the literature

The reconstruction is Thurneysen's published table of contents, refined by Carey: every printed version numbers the attributed texts far below twenty - a dozen or so items (the Comperta, Tochmarc Etaine, Immram Brain, Echtrae Chonlai, Baile Chuinn Chetchathaig, Verba Scathaige and companions) - and the codex's zero-witness status is the premise of the entire literature. The single-witness conjunct is likewise already decided in print, because the standard editions tabulate each attributed text's manuscript witnesses; there the leak cuts against the conjecture, since McCone's Echtrae Chonnlai and Mac Mathuna's Immram Brain print multi-manuscript traditions, so the majority-single-witness clause reads as likely false on the published registers. Either way the answer sits in existing apparatus, not in new counting.

Predictions