Ars Inquirendi 2026 · your paper
Radek Stefanski (University of St Andrews)
Strand
Machine-Scale History
Day
Day 2 · Saturday 21 November 2026
Part
Afternoon — exact times to follow
Role
Talk
Participation
In person
Keynote of the strand
Peter Turchin
Chair
Miljana Radivojević
Long-run growth is driven by new ideas, yet the cultural environment shaping their production is difficult to measure over time. We use large language models to read 23,000 books from the Western canon and score whether each endorses, rejects, or merely depicts positions along six cultural dimensions. We accumulate the scores into inherited stocks and summarize them with an Innovation Wedge measuring cultural resistance to new ideas. Between 1000 and 1920 the wedge falls by 52 percent. We check the measure against blinded expert readings and modern surveys; an independent 5,000-book archive reproduces the decline. In a calibrated semi-endogenous growth model, the falling wedge raises 1920 productivity to between 1.5 and 1.8 times its counterfactual level, explains between half and two-thirds of the first sustained acceleration in productivity growth from 1500 to 1700, and accounts for 27–40 percent of productivity growth in 1920.
Quantitative history & economics
All talks except the live keynotes are pre-recorded and released a week ahead of the conference, by 13 November 2026.
The live sessions are discussions of the pre-recorded talks, held in the room at St Edmund Hall, Oxford, and online.
Speakers do not register or pay.
Invitation or visa letters, and accommodation questions: write to arsinquirendi@gmail.com.